Saturday, January 21, 2012

Virtual Epidemic

Healthy,Carrier,Sick,Dead,Immune
399,1,0,0,0
To make an epidemic with a very similar profile to the current Foot and Mouth outbreak, try the 25x30 map with probabilities 20,30,80,0,0. To explore the fine balance between containment and breakout, try the UK map with 10,20,100,0,0 in the probabilities. A very slightly smaller percentage of Carrier-to-Sick (say 15) is much more dangerous! This assumes all sick animals are killed immediately.

Healthy,Carrier,Sick,Dead,Immune
89,71,92,115,33
To make an epidemic with a very similar profile to the current Foot and Mouth outbreak, try the 25x30 map with probabilities 20,30,80,0,0. To explore the fine balance between containment and breakout, try the UK map with 10,20,100,0,0 in the probabilities. A very slightly smaller percentage of Carrier-to-Sick (say 15) is much more dangerous! This assumes all sick animals are killed immediately.
An epidemic is destructive when it is highly contagious and somewhat strong. The reason for this is because the disease can be spread to more people, yet if it is too strong, it will kill its host too quickly to substantialy spread. However, the disease must still retain some strength, to ensure its resistance against any form of treatment, and also be gradually lethal to effectively kill large amounts of population when it has spread through a good number of people.

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